update: make republicans pay for this awful law

I. VULNERABLE REPUBLICANS IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

     Now that Republicans in the Congress have renounced their power to legislate in deference to their Commander in Cheat, it's time for good Dems to maximize the electoral cost of the Big Bad Bill to the most vulnerable R members in the House.  

     Who are they?  Below are two lists.  The first comes directly from Charlie Cook's Political Report ratings--the Republicans in his "Toss-Up" category.  The second is based on Cook's ratings plus my own review of the past election and the demographics of the districts.  There is only one member on both lists (Gabe Evans, CO-8), although one on my list (Don Bacon, NE-2) has already announced his retirement--and Cook now rates his district "Lean Democrat."!!

     The idea now is that if you have relatives or friends in these members’ districts, urge them to call their members.  They should remind them that when the economy tanks, the poor run out of food, and the rural hospitals close, Trump will blame it all on them (and the Fed).  And while Trump will threaten to primary them, in these districts we should welcome this outcome, since a really Trumpy R will not win in 2026. (I have put links to the district maps from Wikipedia under the text naming the districts so you can locate any relatives or friends.)

Cook's Political Report:  R toss-ups.   PVI = Cook’s partisan voting index.

DISTRICT                           REPRESENTATIVE                          PVI

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AZ-01                                 David Schweikert                      R+1

AZ-06                                 Juan Ciscomani                        EVEN

CO-08                                Gabe Evans                                EVEN  (See below)

IA-01                                  Mariannette Miller-Meeks      R+4

MI-07                                 Tom Barrett                               EVEN

PA-07                                 Ryan Mackenzie                        R+1

PA-10                                 Scott Perry                                 R+3

WI-03                                Derrick Van Orden                    R+3

 My seven, based on the last election and college-educated voters trending Dem    

1.  Mike Lawler, NY-17.  Northern Westchester plus Putnam, Rockland, and a bit of Dutchess Counties.  Affluent (median HH $119K) and D+3.  He won only after Sean Patrick Maloney made some divisive decisions and later did not campaign seriously, until it was too late.  Basically, a fluke.  2024: Harris 50-49.

2.  Brian Fitzpatrick, PA-1, Philly north suburbs--Bucks and a bit of Montgomery County to the Delaware River.  Affluent (median HH $108K), CPVI even, 2024 Harris 50-49.

3.  Don Bacon, NE-2 (the "blue dot").  Omaha and western suburbs.  Cook PVI even, median HH $81K, Harris (Walz a big help here) 51-47.  Now retiring and Cook rates his seat “Lean Dem.”

4.  David Valadao, CA-22- Bakersfield and west.  Median HH $60K, Cook PVI D+5 (this will get smaller because of Trump 52-46 in '24.)  But lots of R's might stay home because Genius Trump just dumped much of their irrigation water.  Charles Gaba says 61 percent of his constituents are on Medicaid.

5.  Tom Kean, Jr., NJ-7, includes rich NYC exurbs and the horsey set.  Cook PVI R+1 but 12th most affluent in the country--median HH $134K.  Trump 49-48 in '24.  

6.  Gabe Evans, CO-8, Denver north suburbs and way north.  CPVI even, median HH $92K.  The incumbent Dem who narrowly lost last year (Caraveo) was really hurt by some bonehead minor party candidates.  Dems have a 3% registration advantage.  2024: Trump 49.6- 47.7.

7.  Maria Elvira Salazar, FL-27, Miami and a bit south.  Median HH $77K, Cook PVI even, 2024: Trump 57 -42.  Florida has been so discouraging lately, but the revocation of Temporary Protected [immigration] Status for many Venezuelans who fled Maduro (and had sponsors in the district) is not going down well.

THE IMPACT OF THE BIG BAD BILL LAW

Medicaid and Related Cuts

I noted above in the case of David Valadao (CA-22) that Medicaid cuts are likely to hurt his chances for re-election.  Valadao’s district has among the very highest percentages of total population on Medicaid and S-CHIP, according to Charles Gaba’s computation.  This is because CA-22 is relatively poor and the state opted to expand Medicaid under the ACA as soon as it could.  Other R members with high numbers in their districts are LaMalfa with (CA-1) with 43 percent, Obernolte (CA-23) with 45, and Rogers (KY-5) with 45.  Then there are 19 R members with Medicaid percentages between 30 and 40 percent:  Begich (AK-AL), 34; Crane (AZ-2), 32; Crawford (AR-1), 31; Westerman (AR-4), 32; Fong (CA-20), 33; Calvert (CA-41), 31; Comer (KY-1), 32; Higgins (LA-3), 35; Johnson (yes, that guy, LA-4), 36; Letlow (LA-5), 39; Malliotakis (NY-11), 35; Tenney (NY-24), 30; Foxx (NC-5), 31; McDonald (NC-6), 30; Brecheen (OK-2), 30; Bentz (OR-2), 39; Newhouse (WA-4), 31; and Miller (WV-1), 33.  These are all mostly rural districts, so the Medicaid cuts and the changes to the financing formula for hospitals will have a big impact on the bottom line of rural hospitals.  They’ll fall short and a lot of these hospitals will close. Although the Medicaid changes don’t arrive until after the 2026 elections, legislatures in the affected states (and the hospitals themselves) will have to write budgets before then, making decisions about other cuts or tax increases (or in the case of hospitals, staying open). In short, the issue will be live during the 2026 election season.

For Medicaid and hospital funding the stories of rural and urban poor diverge in some ways.  While there might be greater concentrations of poverty in some cities, usually there are some nearby hospitals that are still solvent and operating, if only because of the income diversity of the metro area.  Rural folks already suffer from the fact that greater distances make it hard to get emergency or even regular hospital care.

SNAP Cuts

Cutbacks to SNAP (food stamps or EBT) hit differently.  They affect people who are both poor and have successfully applied for them.  Kids whose families are on SNAP qualify for free or reduced-price school lunches and summer meal benefits.  Here the impact via consumption is greater on city districts (see the USDA data page here), both because of poverty as well as higher enrollment percentages at equal eligibility criteria.  But there is also a rural impact—on farmers via reduced demand for staple foods and on grocery stores and other commerce when benefit use declines.     

The Coming Medicare Cuts

Although Republicans claimed to leave Medicare alone, the structure of their big bill means that it will likely be cut also, within a few months, via sequestration (or what is often called “recission”).   Here’s an explainer from David Dayen of The American Prospect.  Key quote:  “Because of a statutory requirement to automatically impose budget cuts when legislation increases the deficit, the Big Beautiful Bill would require automatic sequestration cuts across the board, something that has been confirmed by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) but has been largely absent from the debate over the bill. Medicare is one of the programs that will face the axe, and the damage sums to $490 billion over the next ten years, starting in the next fiscal year that begins in October.”  Here are more details from Jonathan Cohn of The Bulwark.

Together, the cuts in this law are bad news for poor households, rural communities, and state governments across the country, regardless of whether Republicans or Democrats have majority control.

Jim Mahon